Oregon Forecasters: State Will Add 300,000 New Jobs in 10 Years Even as Job Growth Slows

Oregon will create a little more than 300,000 jobs in the next decade, recovering quickly from the epidemic and expanding at fewer than 1% faster than during the prior decade.

Oregon employment will rise by 17% between 2020 and 2030, compared to 21% in the prior decade, according to projections released Thursday. The last ten years saw the nations strongest labor market on record.

Forecasters project that nonfarm employment will top 2.1 million workers in 2030, up from 1.8 million last year.

Leisure and hospitality, the industry most severely hampered by COVID-19, will lead the way in the next decade, expanding by 46%, according to forecasts.

That's nearly quadruple the growth rate in the prior 10 years, and it suggests forecasters believe bars and restaurants will eventually experience a complete recovery from the financial stress they have endured over the past 20 months.

Health care (19% growth), professional and business services (19%), information (15%) and construction (13%) are among the top-growing industries in Thursdays forecast.

Economists predict manufacturing will expand by 11% by 2030 -- but thats only enough to recoup the factory jobs lost during the epidemic. At about 200,000 manufacturing jobs in 2030, factory work will remain well below its peak of 229,000 in the late 1990s.

Which areas perform worst in the forecast for the next decade?

Newspapers and book publishers, which have been in a bind for years because of reorientation to social networks and online news, are expected to lose another 700 jobs, resulting in an 18% decline, while radio and television broadcasters, who have had similar problems, will lose 17% of their jobs.

Computer manufacturing (a subcategory that doesnt include chipmakers like Intel) is projected to fall 21%, as well as telecom companies, with a 16% drop in net income.

Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | Twitter: @rogaway 

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