Monday, January 31, 2022

Oregon Tenants Have 3-5 Weeks to Apply for More Rental Assistance

Oregon has reopened its Rental Assistance Program for 3-5 weeks, depending on when funds run out.

Tenants are being prioritized based on need and can apply online here

Multnomah County is also offering local rent assistance, with information available at the above websites.

Thursday, January 27, 2022

Sold! 22 Units in Rainier, Oregon

 


HFO is pleased to announce the sale of Vance Terrace Apartments in Rainier, Oregon. Congratulations to Lee Fehrenbacher, Rob Marton, Jack Stephens & the rest of the HFO team.

Washington Governor Inslee Proposes $815 Million for Housing, Homeless Support and Other Tenant Provisions

In his 2022 supplemental budget proposal, Washington Governor Jay Inslee hopes the legislature will support major funding for housing before adjournment on March 10th. 

In his own published remarks, the governor explained the reasoning behind his supplemental budget requests. 

Meanwhile, folks at The Urbanist took a deep dive into the implications of the additional funding for housing, and also pulled in some interesting facts about what's been happening in Oregon as well.  

Development in St. Paul, Minn. Halts Following Voter Approval of 3% Rent Control Initiative

Development projects in St. Paul continue to be halted following the passage of a rent control ballot measure limiting rent increases to three percent annually without an exemption for new construction. On January 6th, Luther Seminary was the latest company to pause a project that would have provided city residents with much-needed housing. Read more in the Pioneer Press.

How Large Cities Can Grow Denser and Flourish - An Issue Paper

In a recent post at the Manhattan Institute, the topic of how cities can grow denser and flourish was featured in an issue brief.

Overall, relatively dense U.S. cities have followed two distinct paths to growth. One is “grand bargain” planning: municipalities faced with the need for more housing but widespread opposition from neighborhood activists direct new housing (and thus population growth) to a small number of neighborhoods, in and near downtown, that do not have sizable preexisting populations that can object. The areas that can be redeveloped in these neighborhoods may include open parking lots, now-underutilized but once-industrial sites, public property no longer needed for its original purpose or areas cleared of residents under long-ago urban renewal plans.

While pragmatic, “grand bargain” planning to achieve population growth suffers from several flaws. It fosters dependency on the costliest high-rise housing prototypes, requiring that most new units be targeted to high-income households. Most other households compete for the inadequate stock of older units, as well as the relatively few subsidized income-restricted new units that the city manages to construct. Furthermore, grand bargains lead to the similarity of development, as new housing is built at much the same time, for much the same population, in a few locations. Such neighborhoods may adapt poorly to changing populations and lifestyles over time.

An alternative, more difficult path to growth tries to disperse new housing over a broad area of the city. Such “distributed growth” plans cause changes where sizable populations already live, potentially creating controversy over land-use decisions. Some strategies to disperse growth include Seattle’s “urban villages,” still leading to concentrated growth but affecting more parts of the city; Boston’s construction of new housing affordable to middle-income households, without subsidies, near dispersed transit stations; and Minneapolis’s designation of commercial corridors for growth, as well as permitting up to three units on all single-family lots. Dispersed growth is perhaps more easily accomplished through a comprehensive planning process to secure public buy-in, with upgraded transit and attention to the quality of other neighborhood infrastructure and amenities. The rewards for cities that succeed in this endeavor include more gradual and varied neighborhood change, new housing affordable at a wider range of incomes without subsidies, and greater perceived equity in the distribution of the burdens of population growth.

The #1 Reason Rents Are Rising So Fast Right Now

The actual reason rents are rising so fast is a simple one: people are competing for housing during a chronic shortage. The national rental vacancy rate fell to 5.8%—the lowest it’s been since the mid-1980s, according to a recent report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University. And rents spiked in response, rising nearly 20% annually in November in the 50 largest housing markets, according to the most recent Realtor.com® data.

Download the entire 48-page report here. 

Sold in SE Portland!


HFO is pleased to announce the sale of the SE Rhone Street fourplex, part of a multi-asset portfolio sale. Congratulations to Greg Frick and the rest of the HFO team

Tuesday, January 25, 2022

Sold! 108 Units in Eugene, Oregon

 

HFO is pleased to announce the sale of Four Seasons | Greentree Apartments - a 108-unit portfolio in Eugene, Oregon. Congratulations to Rob Marton and Jack Stephens and the rest of the HFO team.

Sold! 58 Units in Beaverton, Oregon

Click to enlarge

HFO is pleased to announce the year-end closing of Camellia Park Apartments. Congratulations to partners Greg Frick and Rob Marton and the rest of the HFO team!

Monday, January 24, 2022

HFO Multifamily Marketwatch - January 24, 2022

This week: Rent prices turn a corner as rent growth slows; what to look for in this year's multifamily market, and a Central Oregon update.



Listen to our latest podcast.

Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Yardi: Portland, Seattle Rents Up For Year Ending 2021

Yardi Matrix has estimated that rents in Portland ended 2021 up 14.5% while Seattle increased 12.6%. 

Apartment List Report: Rents Fall in December for 1st Decline Since 2020 Rent Growth Records

On average, rent prices rose nearly 18 percent in less than a year last year, so while prices remain high they may have turned a corner, according to a recent report from Apartment List.

Apartment List economists Chris Salviati, Igor Popov, Rob Warnock, and Lilla Szini write that, “Sixty-one of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw rents fall this month, indicating a widespread rental market cooldown.

“In particular, Seattle and San Francisco both landed in the top five for largest month-over-month declines, signaling that these pricey tech hubs may be entering a second phase of COVID-related rental market softness.  More broadly, our national vacancy index ticked up again for the fourth straight month, as we enter 2022 amid an easing of the tight market conditions that characterized 2021.” Read more.

Sold! 128 Units in Beaverton, Oregon

 

Click to enlarge

HFO is pleased to announce the year-end sale of Brookshire Meadows in Beaverton. Congratulations to Greg Frick and Rob Marton and the rest of the HFO team.

Tuesday, January 18, 2022

HFO Multifamily Marketwatch January 17, 2022

This week: record low vacancies in the multifamily market expected to continue in 2022; Freddie Mac forecasts continued growth in multifamily, and HFO has joined with 10 other offices to form Global Real Estate Advisors.



Listen to our latest podcast.

Saturday, January 15, 2022

Oregon Will Resume Taking Emergency Rent Assistance Applications January 26th 2022

Oregon Housing and Community Services (OHCS) will take additional rent assistance applications beginning January 26th at this website. It anticipates running out of funds quickly. The state will have enough money to serve approximately 7,000-9,000 additional applicants. 

Other rental assistance remains available throughout Oregon from other agencies. Tenants can call 2-1-1 or visit these community action agencies for information. 

KTVZ-TV reports that through its three-point plan, OHCS and its processing partner, Public Partnerships LLC (PPL), have made significant strides in the past several weeks to speed up application processing. 

Currently, 265 PPL staff are focusing on processing applications. In the past week alone, PPL paid 2,176 applications.  This is in addition to the applications processed by LPAs working across the state to finish paying out ERA 1 funds.  

 To date, OHCS and LPAs: 

  • Paid $235,428,790 to landlords and tenants to help 33,770 Oregon households, close to 81% of ERA 1 and 2 funds. 
  • Is currently reviewing for payment an additional 7,905 applications.
  • Need applicant or landlord response for 6,223 applications.

Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Sold! 103 Units in Gresham

 

HFO is pleased to announce the sale of 103-unit Coho Run Apartments in Gresham, Oregon. Congratulations to Greg Frick and Tyler Johnson and the rest of the HFO team.

SPECIAL EDITION: HFO Investor Roundtable

This full audio version of the January 5, 2022 event will be available until February 5, 2022.



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Tuesday, January 11, 2022

HFO Joins 10 Other Companies in Forming New U.S. Multifamily Firm

GREA (Global Real Estate Advisors), Full-Service Multifamily Real Estate Advisory Firm,
Launches with 11 U.S. Offices


Union of regional offices creates one of the largest multifamily brokerage firms in the U.S.
 
NEW YORK (Jan. 11, 2022) — GREA (Global Real Estate Advisors), a full-service real estate advisory firm specializing in multifamily acquisitions, dispositions, and financing, launched today with 11 offices, making it one of the largest privately-held multifamily brokerage firms in the U.S.
 
The firm brings together regionally established brokerages throughout the U.S., including National Apartment Advisors, Greystone SG, Brown Realty Advisors, HFO Investment Real Estate, Rittenhouse Realty Advisors, and Bel Real Estate Advisors. Office locations include Atlanta, Austin, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Hilton Head, Houston, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, and Portland. Combined, the brokerages represented more than $4.5 billion in 2021 sales volume.
 
According to Greg Frick, founding partner of GREA's Portland office, "The firm came about from working with these other commercial real estate companies with a similar focus and dedication to our industry. After sharing best practices over the years, we’ve formalized our network into a national firm to combine resources among numerous locations throughout the country.

"We are joining to better serve our clients by leveraging the experience, expertise, and best practices from regional U.S. offices to provide a granular understanding of the apartment market locally and nationally. HFO is excited to become part of GREA, and our increased market force will create something bigger than our separate parts. It is inspiring to collaborate with people in other offices who share our passion for the multifamily industry."

GREA offers state-of-the-art proprietary technology, data sharing, and capital sourcing capabilities with Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bridge, and CMBS to create a highly efficient experience for its clients during acquisition, disposition, and financing. GREA works with a wide variety of active buyers and sellers, from private owners in local markets to institutional investors with multi-market portfolios. Using its collaborative team of multifamily experts, GREA ensures each property receives the broadest exposure.

“Our clients will have unfettered access to expert advice, qualified buyers, sellers, lenders, and investors from coast to coast, as well as the personal attention of GREA principals and partners; all proven industry leaders,” said Barden Brown, Founding Partner of GREA’s Atlanta office.
 
“HFO looks forward to a successful 2022 as we continue to transition and grow GREA’s presence throughout the country," said Frick.
 
About GREA
GREA offers a personal, hands-on, client-driven approach that understands how to tailor solutions to the needs of each investor. GREA aims to help its clients achieve their real estate goals by leveraging its local expertise with the network’s global reach, knowledge, experience, expertise, creativity, and connections. For more information, visit www.grea.com.

Monday, January 10, 2022

In Washington State - a Look at the Legislative Session That Starts Today

The Rental Housing Association of Washington offers rental owners in Washington this roundup of highlights from this year's two-month session which runs January 10-March 10, 2022:

Last year, when Washington state lawmakers convened for a historic 2021 legislative session, much of the focus centered on the financial impacts of COVID-19 and rental housing stability.

In 2022, Olympia must make COVID relief for residents and housing providers more efficient and accessible. Additionally, legislators should prioritize policies that help lead to the preservation and creation of stable, affordable housing and avoid new laws that are causing housing providers to leave the rental market; increasing costs to renters and decreasing their housing opportunities.

Policies that Support Housing Stability and Affordability
Expanding the Landlord Mitigation Program and Support for Survivors of Domestic Violence

1) The Landlord Mitigation Program provides landlords with an incentive and added security to work with tenants receiving rental assistance. The program offers up to $1,000 to the housing provider in paying for some potentially required move-in upgrades, up to fourteen days’ rent loss, and up to $5,000 in qualifying damages caused by a tenant during the tenancy. The program has been expanded to prevent evictions and assist in the long-term rental housing recovery for Washington state’s renters.

2) Unfortunately, the Program is underfunded. Policymakers should focus on meeting the immediate needs of the program to fully fund its opportunity to maintain stable housing. Doing so supports Washington state’s most vulnerable residents while providing security and stability for housing providers.

Enhancing the State’s Rental Assistance Program
Rental assistance is a proven way to help keep families in their homes while ensuring that housing providers can meet their increasing obligations. We can continue to keep families in their homes and avoid the eviction process altogether when we invest in efficient, accessible, and permanent rental assistance.

Continued COVID-19 Support
The impacts of COVID are still a threat to residents and housing providers alike. Many families and small housing providers continue to struggle financially. Policymakers must continue to prioritize swift access to federal rental assistance funds. More than half the allocated rental assistance continues to be available in Washington state.

Policies that can Increase Housing Costs and Reduce Housing Certainty

Eliminating Criminal Record Screening from Rental Applications
A ban on criminal records prevents housing providers from reviewing criminal convictions as part of a holistic rental application process. Housing providers have an obligation to make a risk assessment of each applicant entering a residential community or neighborhood to provide the best opportunity for a safe community.

Statewide Rental Registry
On top of skyrocketing costs to operate rental housing and skyrocketing inflation for all goods, the State should not enact a tax on housing providers to fund programs that do not solve the underlying crises that exist. A statewide rental registry does not solve the underlying housing stock imbalance and creates more impediments to maintaining the existing housing stock for Washingtonians.

Learn more about the Rental Housing Association of Washington. 

Oregon Housing Blog: As Treasury ERA Funds are Depleted in Oregon, Some of the $3.4 Billion May Still Be Available for Rental Assistance

The Oregon Housing Blog argues this week that rental assistance is an eligible use of State Fiscal Recovery Program and Coronavirus Local Fiscal Recovery Program funding provided by the U.S. Treasury. 

States are required to file project and expenditure reports with the treasury on their fiscal recovery program spending through the end of 2021 by the end of January. 

According to the blog, it is possible that some of the $4.2 billion in Oregon funding remains unobligated and could be spent on rental assistance. The author notes that at the end of the June 2021 legislative session there was $488 million remaining in the state Fiscal Recovery Program alone. Read more. 

Treasury to Send $1.1 Billion in Pandemic Rental Assistance

Some cities and states have lost their pandemic rental assistance for failing to distribute it. The money is being redistributed to other locations, according to the U.S. Treasury Department.

In the Pacific Northwest, funds have been allocated as follows from Emergency Rental Assistance Round 1: 

  • $1.16 Million to Oregon
  • $389,589 to the City of Tacoma
  • $234,629 to the City of Spokane
  • $59,718 to the City of Portland
  • $42,569 to Multnomah County
  • $46,686 to Lane County

Read the full list here.

According to the treasury website:

There will be multiple rounds of ERA 1 reallocation. In this first round of reallocation, Treasury will disburse over $1.1 billion in ERA 1 funding, more than three-quarters of which are significant, one-time transfers proposed voluntarily between ERA 1 grantees in the same state. Any amounts recaptured from a grantee were first prioritized to grantees in the same state that were deemed eligible to receive reallocated funds. Funds were then distributed nationally, prioritizing grantees that had substantially completed their spending of ERA 1, with grantees that made more rapid progress on the expenditure of their ERA 2 funding weighted more heavily. The rapid utilization of ERA funds across the country meant that only a limited amount of funding would be reallocated.

Treasury has now begun informing grantees about the process for requesting funding in the second round of ERA 1 reallocations.  The deadline for submitting a request for the second round of reallocated funds is January 21, 2022.  By statute, the process for reallocating ERA 2 funds will not begin until March 31, 2022, and Treasury will publish separate guidance for this reallocation.

Treasury is encouraging states and localities to use other sources of funds, including the $350 billion Coronavirus State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds, to provide additional support to renters – as several communities are already doing. Treasury is also encouraging states and localities to continue to implement other policies and procedures to prevent evictions.

HFO Multifamily Marketwatch - January 10, 2022

This week: an update on the distribution of rental assistance in Oregon, a multifamily market update for Puget sound, and the 2021 United Van Lines moving survey results.



Listen to our latest podcast.

Wednesday, January 5, 2022

HFO Multifamily Marketwatch – January 5th, 2022

This week we are proud to present John Mitchell talking about the commercial real estate market in 2022 from the HFO 2022 Roundtable.



Listen to our latest podcast.

Monday, January 3, 2022

More than 30,000 Oregon Households Receive Rental Assistance; Backlog of More Than 21,000 Remains

Oregon Housing and Community Services announced that OHCS and local program administrators have paid $211.6 million in federal emergency rental assistance to 30,471 households as of last Wednesday.

An OHCS release said that’s up from $200.4 million and 28,869 applicants the previous week through the Oregon Emergency Rental Assistance Program.

OERAP continues to be one of the nation’s top-performing programs and is ranked 5th in the country in the percentage of federal Emergency Rental Assistance funds paid out and obligated, as tracked by the National Low-Income Housing Coalition.

To date, OHCS and its processing partners have:

  1. Paid over $211.6 million to landlords and tenants to help over 30,000 Oregon households.
  2. Received more than 51,700 completed applications, the status of those applications is as follows:

    • 31,117 (60%) are complete and have been submitted for funding
    • 6,405 (12%) are currently under review (12%)
    • 14,729 (28%) are awaiting additional information from the landlord or tenant

An additional 11,062 applications remain incomplete and have not been submitted for review. 


 

Bloomberg: U.S. Housing Crisis Worsens as Population Shrinks

Headline: Declining populations in many cities means more people are moving to fewer places where affordability will get worse, not better.

In what feels like contradictory statements, Bloomberg news declares in its article the following:

News that the U.S. population barely grew this year, together with ever-falling birthrates and the decline in immigration, raises the possibility that the nation will be shrinking in the not-so-distant future. So fewer people should make housing more affordable for those looking for it, right? Well, don't get your hopes up.

People tend not to want to live in shrinking places, and if the U.S. population starts to decline, it might lead to even less housing demand in stagnant metro areas, and an even worse housing affordability crisis in the smaller number of places that continue to attract new residents.

With the population growth in 2021 at just 0.1% - the nation's lowest in its history - 72 of the country's 384 metro areas had declining populations from 2010-2020.  

The housing dynamic is similar to the concept of "climate refugees" — the idea that the impact of wildfires, hurricanes and floods will force people to flee from dry and hot places in the West and coasts in the southeast to more resilient parts of the country. The parallel with population growth might be something like "demographic refugees," with Americans looking to leave the ever-expanding number of places with falling populations to move to the smaller number of places that are still growing, providing better job opportunities and the hope for a more prosperous future.

United Van Lines Movers Survey 2021: Oregon Falls to #8 for Inbound Migration

After ranking #2 the past few years, Oregon has fallen to #8 for inbound movers in the annual United Van Lines report. The report ranks the following states as the top 10 destinations for relocation in the U.S.:

  1. Vermont
  2. South Dakota
  3. South Carolina
  4. West Virginia
  5. Florida
  6. Alabama
  7. Tennessee
  8. Oregon (Specifically Medford/Ashland and Eugene-Springfield)
  9. Idaho
  10. Rhode Island
The report indicated the top outbound states for 2021 were:
  1. New Jersey
  2. Illinois
  3. New York
  4. Connecticut
  5. California
  6. Michigan
  7. Massachusetts
  8. Louisiana
  9. Ohio
  10. Nebraska

Ranked: Top 50 Markets People from Portland are Moving

Stacker has ranked and counted the number of people leaving Portland for these 50 markets across the country

Under a Hot Housing Market, an Even Hotter Rental Market

Yahoo/Finance

by Javier E. David·Editor focused on markets and the economy,

In an article posted December 31 the author posits that work from home is causing a boom in housing and rental prices across the country. 

The WFH phenomenon has helped to drive up rent prices around the country, and in fact was one of the biggest stealth inflationary trends of 2021. In a recent analysis, Quartz reporter Camille Squires found that rents and home prices are soaring anew after a brief lull, thanks to a convergence of two powerful supply and demand forces:

Families looking to buy their first house are being shut out of the market, pushing up demand in the rental market. But this time they’re also rising at a much faster clip than before as property owners make up for lost income during the pandemic.

In Manhattan (where most big-money New Yorkers live), the average salary is over $86,000, according to Adzuna, a job search engine. And in the borough, average prices for apartments of various sizes soared by double-digits in 2021, according to MNS Real Estate data. Wanting a doorman will cost renters significantly more, the firm noted.

According to economist and Bloomberg columnist Karl Smith, rent increases have been “more substantial” in places like Tennessee and Idaho, underscoring how “the work-from-home trend has led some well-paid professionals to ditch the city in favor of more rural environs.”

Smith added that working from home “also seems to be pushing some folks toward lower-cost locations. These younger professionals, with incomes that count as modest if they live on the coasts but are still above the national average, have not only substantial purchasing power but sometimes also new families that need housing.”

And with big companies like Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Lyft (LYFT) — and Yahoo Finance’s own parent company Yahoo — all backing away from return-to-office plans set for January, it suggesting that the WFH effect on housing prices will become more entrenched in the face of soaring infections and new variants.

Read the full article.

Op-Ed: Oregon Will Never End Homelessness With Our Current Approach

by Eric Fruits, Ph.D.

What if everything we thought we knew about homelessness was wrong? If that’s the case, many of the policies we’re pursuing are making things worse instead of better. It’s becoming clearer that much of the accepted wisdom regarding homelessness may be nothing more than convenient myths – myths that lead to doomed policies.

The Oregon Office of Economic Analysis claims “we know homelessness is primarily about the inability to afford housing, largely the result of not building enough housing in recent decades.” Multnomah County also blames the “affordability crisis” but credits racism as a “structural” cause of homelessness.

Under this theory, the homeless on the streets are locals who couldn’t afford their rents or were unable to find housing because of systemic racism and racist property owners. It’s asserted that homelessness leads to substance abuse, rather than the other way around. If this is true, the solution is straightforward. Build more taxpayer-funded affordable housing, give priority to BIPOC applicants, and root out racist landlords. Give people housing and opportunities for treatment, and the substance abuse will go away.

But what if that theory is wrong?

Portland’s unsheltered homeless population is overwhelmingly white (68%), male (69%) and working age (73%), according to the latest survey – which was conducted nearly three years ago. That was pre-COVID, when the economy was booming and working-age unemployment was at a 20-year low of about 3%. If a white, working-age man wanted a job to pay the rent, he could have found a job to pay the rent. Something is wrong with this picture.

What’s wrong is what’s missing. The last survey reports nearly half of the unsheltered homeless suffer from substance abuse. That share is likely higher today. According to the Oregon Health Authority, overdose deaths in Multnomah County from fentanyl and methamphetamine began to skyrocket around 2017. From 2016 to 2019, deaths from meth increased 86% and fentanyl deaths tripled. Last year, 126 people with “domicile unknown” died in Multnomah County. Substance use was involved in nearly two-thirds of those deaths.

Instead of a homelessness crisis that’s leading to substance abuse, we have a substance abuse crisis that’s driving homelessness.

In “The Least of Us,” Sam Quinones recounts the story of Eric, a social worker in Los Angeles. Of all the people he met in Los Angeles’ homeless camps, Eric could not remember a single one who lost their housing because of high rents. Instead, they told him meth was the main reason they were homeless. Even so, according to Quinones, “ … policy makers and advocates instead preferred to focus on L.A.’s cost of housing, which was very high, but hardly relevant to people rendered schizophrenic and unhousable by methamphetamine.” Multnomah County’s latest report on deaths among the homeless population recounts the lives of several of those who died homeless last year. None of the stories mention housing affordability as the cause of their homelessness, but substance use runs through many of them.

Michael Shellenberger’s “San Fransicko: Why Progressives Ruin Cities” concludes progressive policy makers and advocates have adopted an ideology that sees lawbreakers as victims. Under this way of thinking, any attempts to rein in lawbreaking will further victimize the lawbreakers. The result is paralysis and an urge to spend money to give the impression of solving a problem without doing anything to actually solve the problem.

On homelessness, San Francisco’s leaders have decided that expensive publicly funded permanent supportive housing – rather than emergency shelter – is the best way to address the problem. This is the same thinking that dominates Metro, Multnomah County and the City of Portland’s policies. Under what is known as a “housing first” approach, residents are under no obligation to seek treatment for substance abuse or mental illness. The hope is that after they are housed, someday eventually they’ll come around to getting help, but only when they’re ready.

It’s a policy that’s doomed to fail. It’s well known in the recovery field that the people who are most in need of treatment are also those who are most resistant to treatment. Handing addicts the keys to an apartment that cost more than $300,000 to build and saying, “Let us know when you’re ready for rehab,” is a recipe for failure. Most of them will never be ready.

Shellenberger and Quinones write that the meth on the streets today is different from just a few years ago. This new formulation creates psychosis and schizophrenia and causes users to commit crimes and violence. Shellenberger argues that drug users arrested for committing crimes should be given a choice of rehab or jail. It’s a form of tough love that may save their lives while protecting the community.

I had lunch with the father of a son in his 40s. While in college, his son developed a mental illness that came with overwhelming paranoia. He thought his roommates were trying to poison him. He thought the medications for his illness were poison, so he went untreated. Eventually he was arrested for pulling a gun in a bar and ended up doing time. As a condition of his parole, the judge ordered the son to take his medications. His father credits that judge with saving his son’s life. The choice of treatment or jail can be a strong motivator. The judge knew that, and the dad now knows that.

A leader of a prominent downtown Portland homeless service provider emailed me several examples of his shelter’s failed attempts to get treatment for people who were clearly a danger to themselves and others. One of these was Rachel Hammer.

… a woman in Old Town suffering from mental illness was regularly reported by [shelter] staff as mentally unstable, and a danger to herself and others, yet was only warned and allowed to remain free without mental examination. She later committed a serious arson and was found guilty of a Measure 11 crime. What could have been a detainment for a mental evaluation and involuntary mental commitment costing the public approximately $20,000 was instead a five-year sentence at Coffee Creek costing the state approximately $1,000,000 (with all law enforcement, prosecution, correction and mental health costs at Coffee Creek Correctional facility included).

Last year, Oregon voters approved Measure 110, which decriminalized personal and non-commercial possession of many drugs, including meth, heroin and fentanyl. Persons caught with a small amount of these drugs receive a citation for a $100 fine. The fine can be wiped out if the person submits to a health “screening.” There is no obligation to seek or receive any follow-up treatment for substance use. Once the person gets the screening, they can keep on keepin’ on.

The homeless service provider who emailed me saw Measure 110 as a disaster in the making: “Incarceration is often an exit point in homelessness for addicts. I estimate the length of homelessness for addicts … to have been about one year, and I estimate this length will easily increase to 2-plus years with reduced arrests [under Measure 110].”

This is coming from someone who has spent decades providing services to the homeless. This is someone who works with them every day. Someone who wants people to get into housing. Someone who cares about the safety of the rest of the community. This person knows – from experience – that the choice of rehab or jail is a powerful incentive to get treatment.

Nevertheless, the fact that he asked to remain anonymous indicates that this kind of talk is not appropriate in the polite society that dominates the Homeless Services Industrial Complex. You see, the Complex needs the crisis to continue or worsen. The Complex needs Metro to come back to voters to renew its income taxes to funnel money to the scads of nonprofits that promise to help the homeless, but not end homelessness. The Complex needs local governments to pass bond measures so developers and construction companies can build so-called affordable housing that costs more than twice the costs per unit of private construction. The politicians in the Complex need more ribbon cutting photo ops.

If you want to end homelessness, ignore what the Complex says. It’s always self-serving.

It’s been 16 years since Portland and Multnomah County adopted a 10-year plan to end homelessness, and we’re now in our seventh year of a city-wide housing emergency. Even so, the problem is worse today than it was then. Something isn’t working. It’s time to bust the myth that most of the region’s homeless are victims of rising housing prices. It’s time to address the real problem – a substance abuse crisis that’s driving people into homelessness and turning residents and businesses into victims of crime and violence.

Eric Fruits, Ph.D. is Vice President of Research at Cascade Policy Institute, Oregon’s free market public policy research organization, which recently published “Homelessness in Portland: Some Straightforward Solutions to a Complex Problem.” A version of this article was published by the Pamplin Media Group on December 17, 2021.

Download the whole report here.