Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Portland's Year-End Vacancy Rate from Census, Plus All the Expert Forecasts on Vacancy & Rent Growth for 2014



The U.S. Census Bureau is reporting that the Portland/Vancouver /Beaverton vacancy rate rose from 2.1 percent in Q2 and Q3 2013 to 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter, a half percent below where it ended up atthe end of 2012. 
The Portland metro area tied with Rochester NY for the 14th lowest vacancy rates among the top 75 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). This estimate has moved above the 3.11 percent vacancy rate reported by the MultifamilyNW Association in its Fall, 2013 survey.
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ranked #11 with a Q4 2013 vacancy estimate of 4.0 percent, down 0.4 percent from the prior quarter.

The nation's 15 lowest vacancy rates were as follows:
  • Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NJ - 0.0%
  • Springfield, MA – 0.9%
  • Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA – 1.9%
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA – 2.7%
  • San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA – 3.2%
  • Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY – 3.4%
  • Pittsburgh, PA – 3.5%
  • Worcester, MA – 3.7%
  • Toledo, OH – 3.8%
  • Raleigh-Cary, NC – 3.9
  • Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA – 4.0%
  • Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI – 4.2%
  • San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos – 4.4%
  • Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA – 4.6% (tie)
  • Rochester, NY – 4.6% (tie)
  • Baton Rouge, LA  - 4.7%
The MSA's with the five highest vacancy rates were as follows:
  • Las Vegas-Paradise, NV - 13.5%
  • Birmingham-Hoover, AL – 13.8%
  • Austin-Round Rock, TX – 13.9%
  • Tulsa, OK – 14.1%
  • Memphis, TN-AR-MS – 15.8%
Average national rental vacancy rates for Q4 2013 was 8.2% and was 0.5% lower than a year earlier and 0.1% lower than Q3 2013. The rental vacancy rate has been falling fairly consistently since 2009. It is at its lowest level since Q1 2001 and far below the Q3 2009 high water mark of 11.1%.

The Census Bureau statistics compare to private research firms Axiometrics' and Red Capital Research (RCR) as follows:

Portland Metro Vacancy Rate – Forecasts
Red Capital Research
Axiometrics
Reis*
Multifamily NW
US Census
2012
2.3%
4.9%
3.4%
3.7%
Q4 5.2%
2013
2.5%
4.3%
3.0%
3.11%
Q4 4.6%
2014
2.8%F
5.1%F
3.2%F
 -
-
*4 Quarters, averaged
F = Forecast                 

Portland Metro effective rent growth estimates & forecasts

Effective Rent Growth – Forecast
Red Capital Research
Axiometrics
Reis
MPF
Research
2012
5.0%
4.0%
3.8%
4.4%
2013
3.3%
5.7%
3.7%
6.6%
2014
3.4%F
3.4F
3.6%F
4.8%F

F=Forecast