Call in the Trombones! Park West Tower Groundbreaking at 10:30 am Friday in Director Park

TMT development is hosting the Lincoln High School marching band at 10:30 a.m. tomorrow for the official re-groundbreaking ceremony of the Park Avenue West Tower. 

The building will include 211 apartments on 15 floors topped by 13 floors of office space leased almost exclusively to the law firm Stoel Rives.  The building will have a six floor underground parking garage topped by two floors of retail.

The $175 million project will be completed in 2015.

REIS: National Apartment Vacancy Rate: 4.2%, Portland Metro: 2.9%

According to REIS, the national apartment vacancy rate declined in the 3rd quarter from 4.3 percent to 4.2 percent. For Q2 the Portland Metro apartment vacancy rate was pegged at 2.9 percent. Read the full story.

The Red Capital Group also released its 2013 report for Q2, ranking Portland 5th in the nation for occupancy.  Red Capital Group is forecasting Portland metropolitan vacancy at 3.5 percent for 2014, 3.4 percent for 2015 and 3.1 percent for 2016. Download the Red Capital Group summary sheet PDF.

Report from Real Share Apartments 2013: "Potential for A Nice Long Cycle"

A panel of apartment experts this past week at the Real Share Conference in Los Angeles were upbeat about the state of the apartment market.  One panelist's forecast was the possibility of a  long cycle with continued gains.

Read the full story at GlobeSt.com

Join HFO's Table at the BIG Breakfast, Thurs. Nov. 7th

Consider joining the HFO table at the BIG BREAKFAST on Thursday, November 7th 7:30-8:30 am at the Oregon Convention Center. If you can't make it - please consider making a donation.

Oregon ranks among the bottom of all states for high school graduation rates.  But Big Brothers/Big Sisters is amazingly effective at making a difference.  Last year 95% of all at-risk children matched with Big Brothers or Sisters graduated high school! Please give your support for something with proven results.
https://www.givebigtoday.org/

Making A Difference: Its National Lead Poisioning Prevention Week

Apartment Safety: It's the EPA's annual lead poisoning prevention week. For buildings built before the late 1970's, lead-based paint can be an issue. If you haven't read up on it lately, here a refresher and four steps management can take to prevent lead poisoning (and the litigation that can come with it).

CoStar: Financing Availability for Multifamily Development Expected to Slow

After four years will financing to develop new apartments become more difficult?

Read today's report at CoStar.

HFO Apartment Construction Report(TM)

The last numbers are in! HFO's current Apartment Construction Report(TM) provides the following data.

This report, updated as of October 23, 2013, shows a total of 15,727 units currently under construction and planned in the Portland/Vancouver metro area.  If all of these units were built, here is where they would be located:
 

Sum of Units	Stage of Construction
Location Code	Planned	Under Construction	Grand Total
Close-in Eastside	1273	1596	2869
Close-in Westside	2424	690	3114
N Portland	1446	1000	2446
Outer Eastside	528	668	1196
Outer Westside	2336	2164	4500
S. Waterfront		118	118
Washington	976	508	1484
Grand Total	8983	6744	15727

(c) HFO Investment Real Estate 2013. Reproduction without permission is strictly prohibited.

Oregon's In-Migration Coming From All Over the Country, But Mostly California

In a series of posts on the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis blog, Josh Lehner explains in great detail where the new residents of Oregon are coming from and just where they are going. 

There's a lot here to consider, but HFO's reading is:

Southern Californians are the largest set of migrants to Oregon (L.A./Riverside & San Diego).

Portland is getting in-migration from all big cities across the country with NY ranking #3

There is a slight net migration gain to Seattle from Portland.

82% of people leaving Portland for Washington are moving to Clark County... (tax reduction, anyone?)

People leaving Portland move largely to Seattle, Austin, Houston, Denver, Charlotte, New Orleans and Dallas. 



See more cool charts on the state's economic blog.

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/08/29/migration/
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/09/05/more-on-migration/
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2013/09/05/one-more-on-migration/

Portland, Oregon Metro Fall 2013 Apartment Market Update [Video] with Greg Frick

HFO Partner Greg Frick shares his thoughts on the Portland metro apartment market. October 2013. [video]

From the Business Journal: Why Banks Love Apartments Right Now

The Portland Business Journal's Wendy Culverwell interviewed a local banker about banker's current feelings about the multifamily housing market.

Read more.

Sunday Oregonian: Shift to Renting Likely Permanent After Recession

The Sunday Oregonian's editorial this week was about the housing market, and how the recession has likely left it with one permanent change: more renters.  Read the editorial.

Portland area apartment tax bills to rise as much as 11%

Tax bills being mailed out now show increases for apartments as high as 11 percent. Read more on Oregonlive.com.

Breaking... Multifamily NW Apartment Report Pegs Portland Metro Vacancies at 3.11%

Multifamily NW released its report this morning stating apartment vacancies in Portland metro have fallen from 3.55 percent reported in April to 3.11 percent.

Average rent per square foot has increased 5.8 percent in the past six months.

Inner and central NE has the lowest vacancy in the area, at 2.1 percent.

Geographic Area	Rent Per Square Ft.	Market Vacancy Rate
NW Portland	$1.61	3.5%
Hillsboro	$1.05	4.5%
Aloha	$1.06	2.5%
Beaverton	$1.04	2.3%
Downtown Portland	$1.82	2.8%
SW Portland	$1.35	3.0%
Tigard/Tualatin/ Sherwood	$0.98	2.6%
Lake Oswego/ West Linn	$1.10	3.2%
Wilsonville/ Canby	$0.99	2.7%
Oregon City/ Gladstone	$0.98	2.6%
Milwaukie	$0.98	3.9%
Clackamas	$0.98	4.0%
Inner & Central SE Portland	$1.17	2.3%
Outer SE Portland	$0.98	3.6%
Troutdale/ Fairview/ Wood Village/ Gresham	$0.90	5.9%
Outer NE Portland	$0.86	4.3%
Inner & Central NE Portland	$1.28	2.1%
North Portland/ St. Johns	$1.08	2.2%
West Vancouver	$0.87	2.5%
East Vancouver	$0.94	2.6%
Salem	$0.86	4.0%
Eugene/ Springfield	$1.01	3.4%
Bend/ Redmond	$0.83	1.3%

Read more in Wendy Culverwell's article in today's Business Journal.

Also today, Elliot Njus reports in The Oregonian:
Demand For Apartments, & Rents Keep Rising Despite New Construction

Study: Portland 35th in Multifamily Investments Worldwide

The Portland Business Journal reports that a recent study ranks Portland 35th in the world for multifamily investment volume. Read More.

This Month in Oregon Business Magazine, Greg Frick Reveals His Latest Reads!

Think you can guess what Greg Frick enjoys reading?

Find out the truth in this month's Oregon Business Magazine. 

Burnside Bridgehead Plans Including 300+ Apartments Coming to Life

Big stories this past week in The Oregonian and Portland Business Journal outline plans for long-planned development of the Burnside Bridgehead. The developments would include well over 300 new apartments.

Population Growth: There's Youth in Them Thar Hills

by Aaron Kirk Douglas, Marketing Director

OK. I have to admit when I saw the latest Population Estimates by Age and Sex for Oregon and its Counties (July 1, 2012) which were released a couple months ago by PSU, I was a little... well, surprised.

We are always hearing about how Portland is the place where young people are flocking to retire.  And the PSU Population Center recently conducted a study that kinda... well, deflated that theory.

It concluded, in part:

"Juxtaposing the consistency of Portland’s young, educated migration trends over the past thirty years with the long-­‐held notion asserted by urban economists39 arguing that migration is akin to ‘voting with your feet’, we conclude that, it seems clear that young, educated migrants have cast their ballots in favor of the Portland region’s quality of life." 

"The results also underscore an equally important trend; in particular, the high level of demographic effectiveness and movement of older migrants ‘up the urban hierarchy’ to the Portland region suggests that Portland may also be the case where 'old people go to retire.'"

Look at these number for Multnomah County

Age Range	Population
20-24	53,321
25-29	69,643
30-34	67,665
35-39	61,963
40-44	55,023
45-49	50,668
50-54	49,732
55-59	48,127
60-64	40,003
65-69	27,450
70-74	18,726
75-79	13,758
80-84	10,912

The numbers of those young whippersnappers in the 25-39 age range are huge! No wonder I'm starting to feel like the oldest person at the movies.

What happened? Did we all work together so well that Portland and Oregon became one of the best places on the planet?  I thought WE were the boomers -- always the best and the biggest.

As far as that PSU theory that smart retirees are moving here... I'm not so sure, although there are more older people in Clackamas and Washington counties. For Multnomah County, the population counts after age 69 aren't looking too great.  Now I'm seeing that I'm already in the age category where the numbers are starting to decline!  Ouch.

The good news for apartment owners is that the numbers are big in some prime apartment-renting years, and there's another wave of kids now aged 0-4 in Multnomah County that will be renting before we know it!