Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Census Reports Portland/Vancouver Multifamily Vacancy at 5.2%

The U.S. Census Bureau reported today the Portland/Vancouver/Beaverton vacancy rate rose from 4.5 percent in Q3 2012 to 5.2 percent in the fourth quarter, tied with L.A. and Springfield, MA for the 11th lowest vacancy rates among the top 75 U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). This estimate is above the 3.6 percent vacancy rate reported by the Metro Multifamily Housing Association in its Fall, 2012 survey and lower than .

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA ranked #26 with a Q4 2012 vacancy estimate of 7.7 percent, up 0.3 percent from the prior quarter.

The nation's 11 lowest vacancy rates were as follows:

  • Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT - 2.2%
  • San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA -2.8%
  • Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA - 3.5% (tie)
  • San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA -3.5% (tie)
  • Toledo, OH - 3.6%
  • Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA - 3.7%
  • Honolulu, HI - 4.0%
  • Rochester, NY - 4.4%
  • Denver-Aurora, CO - 4.7%
  • Bakersfield, CA 5.0%
  • Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NJ - 5.0%
  • Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro, TN 5.1%
  • Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA - 5.2% (tie)
  • Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA - 5.2% (tie)
  • Springfield, MA - 5.2% (tie)
The MSA's with the five highest vacancy rates were as follows:
  • Orlando, FL - 15.0%
  • Las Vegas-Paradise, NV - 15.3%
  • Richmond, VA - 15.4%
  • Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI - 17%
  • Dayton, OH - 18.8%
Average national vacancy rates for Q4 2013 was at 4.5% the lowest since 2001 and far below the Q4 2009 high water mark of 8.0%.

Download the Census Bureau table here.

The Census Bureau statistics compare to private research firms Axiometrics' and Red Capital Research (RCR) as follows:


Vacancy Rate - Forecast
Red Capital Research
Axiometrics
2012
2.3%
4.9%
2013
2.5%
4.3%
2014
2.8%
5.1%


 Effective rent growth forecasts:

Effective Rent Growth – Forecast
Red Capital Research
Axiometrics
2012
5.0%
4.0
2013
3.3%
5.3
2014
3.4%
4.3
 
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