Monday, January 11, 2010

Appraiser Mark D. Barry Releases 2010 Market Forecast

In his Winter 2010 Apartment Market Report, appraiser Mark D. Barry cites Greenlight Portland and Wells Fargo's forecasts of 1,200 to 3,000 new jobs for the Portland metro area, and the Red Capital Research estimate of an additional loss of 4,600 jobs in Oregon in 2010 with 15,000 new jobs in 2011. Meanwhile, the Oregon Office of Economic analysis expects job losses to stop early in 2010 with stabilization and some recovery later in 2010 with employment reaching pre-recessino levels in 2013.

Condo Market
The condominium market is currently characterized by pain, distress, slow sales, declining values, foreclosures on individual units and workouts and foreclosures on major projects. Barry estimates Portland will not see a major new condo project for at least five years.

Apartment Construction
Barry forecasts another slow year for apartment constructionand some developers taking out permits in anticipation of a stronger market in 2011 and beyond.

Vacancies in the Short Term - Shortage of Apartments by 2012
Barry cites REIS and CBRE Torto Wheaton reports as forecasting an apartment vacancy of 7.0 to 7.5% by late 2010 with a quick rebound in 2011 due to pent up demand from young adults tiring of living with their parents, slow apartment construction and a better economy.  Barry predicts that a convergence of various factors will lead to an apartment shortage by 2012.

Apartment Sales Volume
With 2009 reflecting the lowest level of apartment sales in the past few decades, Barry predicts 2010 to be a far better year for apartment sales.  His reports sales will increase as a result of circumstances including seller motivation by possible increases in capital gains, buyers who sense we are close to bottom, underwater investors facing cash calls due to lower net income and inability to refinance current debt.

Buyers or sellers wanting to consult with an HFO broker about the current market and how they might best take advantage of the current situation should call us at 503-241-5541.

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